给我首回合比分和本场主客场，我能把出线概率算清楚（含加时/点球）。先给你一版通用赛前推演，方便对齐“皇马逆转 vs 阿森

Considering sports analysis

I see the user sent a message in Chinese about a potential comeback for Real Madrid, indicating doubts about Arsenal's chances, perhaps asking for an article or prediction. They didn't specify a question. I think it’s best to either clarify their request or provide a compact analysis. Since I shouldn't hallucinate data, I'll draft a preview based on hypothetical conditions, including forms, strategies, injuries, and probabilities. I could also ask for context about the competition or match leg.Developing analysis scenarios

I'm thinking I can propose a few assumptions and ask for more details from the user. I should stick to 4-6 concise bullet points and maybe even give it a title. I’ll suggest three scenarios and key factors, while hinting at predicted scorelines and qualification odds. However, I must be cautious about fabricating details. Since [[NEWS.CONTENT_HTML]]quot;小负晋级[[NEWS.CONTENT_HTML]]quot; suggests Arsenal has an aggregate lead, I really need the first-leg score to proceed. I’ll ask about the competition and that score, and also note that away goals have been abolished since the 2021-22 UEFA competitions.Mapping outcomes and scenarios

I can present a framework for analyzing Arsenal's situation. If they lead by 2 on aggregate, they can still afford to lose 0-1 or 1-2, while Real Madrid needs to win by 2 to force extra time or 3+ to advance. I might start with a general formula, like taking the first leg result. For instance, if Arsenal won 3-1 in the first leg, I could outline how different second-leg results impact the aggregate. This shows how Arsenal could still advance or the conditions needed for Real to progress. I should clarify how [[NEWS.CONTENT_HTML]]quot;小负晋级[[NEWS.CONTENT_HTML]]quot; suggests a small loss typically means one goal.Analyzing match scenarios

To analyze Arsenal's situation, I'd need to start with an initial delta of 2 or more. I can discuss data like Real Madrid’s historical strengths in late goals and Arsenal's low expected goals against. I must be careful not to include specific season stats, though. I could present a predicted match pattern—Real pushing, Arsenal in a mid-block—along with a simple probabilistic model using expected goals. I’ll provide a template with example values to illustrate this concept and invite the user to share their expected goals or input a line, making sure to respond in Chinese since they wrote in that language.Crafting a pre-match analysis

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I think it’s best to provide a quick analysis and ask for the first-leg score for more precision. I can create a bullet list of points:

• Rules: No away goals; tied aggregate leads to extra time and penalties.
• [[NEWS.CONTENT_HTML]]quot;小负晋级[[NEWS.CONTENT_HTML]]quot; conditions: Aggregate lead of 2 or more for Arsenal.
• Comeback requirements for Real: They need to win by at least the delta in 90 minutes, equal to delta for extra time, and more than delta to advance directly.
• Data points: Real's strength in comebacks at home; Arsenal's improved defense and set-pieces.

I’ll propose three scoring scenarios and offer to compute exact advancement probabilities if the user provides the first-leg score, home/away context, and the last five matches' expected goals. Let’s structure it clearly in Chinese, showing the title and key points concisely.